.... .‘You mean to tell me that we, the United States of America, cannot take on the shah militarily?’ thundered President Ford..
Command indecision: Confronted by confused reports of hostilities between Iran and Iraq, President Ford meets with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Stall, General Brown (far left), Vice-President Rockefeller, Henry Kissinger, and Defense Secretary Schlesinger.
...client state of the Pentagon’s. What was good for the shah was therefore good for America.
James Schlesinger endorsed this statement “without any reservations whatsoever.” It was totally consistent with American policy as initiated by Johnson in 1968, and continued by the Nixon and Ford administrations ever since.
Kissinger, biting his fingernails more than usual, remained silent. Simon also said nothing, but seemed to have an “I told you so” look on his face. Only Rockefeller dissented: “I don’t like this one damn bit.” (Was Standard Oil telling Rocky more than it was telling the Pentagon?)
At this juncture, Henry, of course, began to tilt in the direction of Rockefeller. “Nor do I,” he stated, firmly.
Then the president’s phone rang. Apparently some new action had started on the gulf. The C.I.A. would have a full report later. Jerry Ford actually looked relieved after he hung up. He had hardly wanted to take sides against his friends in the Pentagon, but he also could not afford to buck Rockefeller-Kissinger. So he said: “Gentlemen, we need a lot more information about the situation over there before we can decide anything. Let’s meet again first thing tomorrow morning. In the meantime, I want all of you to get everything you can on what’s going on.”
V
Actually, quite a bit was going on. At 6 A.M. on March 1, Middle Eastern time (which was eight time zones ahead of Washington), the Iranian takeover of Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Oman began.
The Kuwaiti operation was simple. The Iranian forces, which now completely controlled the entire southeastern corner of Iraq, simply turned south. By noon Kuwait’s 3,000-man army surrendered. The next place to go was Bahrain. For years, the large and powerful Iranian minority in Bahrain had been demanding Anschluss with the mother country. On this March 1, the local Iranians—who in the meantime had been molded together in a well-organized and superbly armed paramilitary force—took the country over. No more than 100 shots were fired.
The takeover of Qatar, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai involved a combination of betrayal from within and invasion from the sea. In all three sheikdoms there were large numbers of Iranian immigrants who had brought with them the skills and work ethic necessary for the
building of a modern economy—attributes which the local Arab population lacked. These immigrants, who had been organized along Bahrainian lines, occupied the strategic military points at dawn. When the Iranian regular troops arrived from the islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tanb, they had very little left to do.
In Oman no invasion was necessary. Starting in 1972, the shah had generously provided the Omani government with military assistance to help it counter the Dhofar rebels in the strategic northern tip of Oman, situated between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. By 1976, Iran had 2,000 paratroopers and 60 helicopters in that region. In addition, the majority of the Omani army there were Baluchis, recruited for the most part from southern Iran. The paratroopers and Baluchis simply got together and ran up the Iranian flag.
While all this was happening on the ground, a major redeployment of Iranian air and sea forces was taking place. It involved a massive shift of equipment to the new naval/air bases at Bandar Abbas (guarding the mouth of the Persian Gulf from the west coast of Iran) and especially to Chah Bahar on the Iranian coast, just west of the Pakistani border. Chah Bahar was by far the largest military base anywhere in the Indian Ocean. It was built by American contractors in the early 1970’s, at a cost of $1 billion.
By nightfall of March 1, 1976, Iran controlled the entire Persian Gulf. The Two-Day War was over. Now Iran’s forces were poised around the mouth of the Gulf in anticipation of a challenge from the United States.
When the six men reconvened in the White House early on March 2, it was Bill Simon who pointed out the enormous gravity of the situation. The shah, he said, now controlled all the oil in the Middle East, except for that of Saudi Arabia. And there was little doubt in his mind that the shah could now grab the Ghawani oil fields (from which Saudi Arabia got 90 per cent of its crude-oil output).
“Okay,” said Ford, “how do we respond, General Brown?”
General Brown frowned. “Sir, what exactly did you have in mind?”
“The marines, the navy. I don’t care. I just want the shah to pull back. All the way. And right away.”
“Uh, that’s going to be a bit difficult. I mean, doing it right away.”
“What do you mean?”
“Well actually, sir, we’ve got nothingin that area. Our closest strike force would be the Sixth Fleet, I guess. But that’s in the Mediterranean, of course. And the Seventh Fleet’s off Formosa right now. If we moved either one, it would be about a week before we’d be ready to hit the Gulf. But even then I’m not sure we would want to do it.”
“Why not, for Christ’s sake?”
“Well, the shah has an enormous amount of fire power ready to go against us. He’s got two of our carriers cruising off Char Bahar—the Kitty Hawk and the Constellation. They’ve each got 90 Phantoms on board. Then there’s Char Bahar proper. He’s got 80 F-14’s there
—more than we have in all of Europe. And take those missile sites on Abu Musa. Assuming we could get into the Gulf, I’m not sure we’d get past them.”
“You mean to tell me that we, the United States of America, cannot take on the shah militarily?” thundered Ford.
“Well, we could. But our casualty rate would be astronomic. And then there’s something else to think about. In order to get the shah back out of the Gulf, we’d have to mobilize a type of landing on the scale of Normandy in World War II. With the exception that our supply lines would not be fifteen miles across the English Channel, but about 5,000 miles, from Western Europe. I’m not sure that course of action is to be recommended.”
“What course of action is?”
“We’d probably have to go nuclear.” One of the president’s aides entered the Oval Office at this point, and handed Henry Kissinger a note.
“It’s Ardeshir Zahedi,” said Kissinger.
“Who?” asked Ford.
“The Iranian ambassador. He wants to talk to me.”
“On the phone?”
“Yes.”
“Well, talk to him.”
Henry left the room. While he was gone, General Brown explained that, in his judgment, it would be best to use B-52’s from Guam for the job. The Europeans would get upset, he thought, if any nuclear attack force based on their territory was used to bluff the shah. Of course, he went on to explain, the threat of such weaponry would not by any means preclude the necessity of occupying the Gulf with American troops. Which would require a major naval operation, and, as he had already pointed out, considerable risk. On the other hand, since the shah had no means of nuclear retaliation, no doubt he would just give up the moment the B-52’s appeared over Iran.
Then Henry came back in, looking a bit pale.
"Our Iranian friend called just to pass along a little message from the shah. He wants to assure us that he remains a staunch friend of the United States, and can now insure stability in the Middle East, an objective which, he says, our two nations have been jointly pursuing during the past decade. He added a P.S.," continued Kissinger. "He wants to calm any fears we might have concerning a possible attempt by the Soviet Union to take advantage of the situation by trying to move into the area through nuclear blackmail. Fortunately Iran possesses a quite adequate nuclear capability, thanks to the help of his two best friends: the French, who helped him get the bombs, and America, which has provided him such efficient delivery systems. He sends his best regards to you. Mr. President."
"He’d never use them against us even if he really had them." stated Schlesinger.
"What do you think, Henry?" asked Ford.
"I don’t know him well enough. But I do know somebody who does."
"Who?"
"Bill Rogers. Right after he resigned as secretary of state, he went to work for the Pahlavi Foundation."
"Call him."
So Henry did. Rogers’s answer was slow to come, prudently worded, but quite clear: the shah probably had nuclear weapons, and if he was threatened by B-52’s and the Sixth Fleet, he’d use them as a last resort. There was a carefully couched suggestion that an element of irrationality in the shah’s character should not be ignored.
When Henry had finished, somebody muttered: "We should have given that bastard the Allende treatment years ago." But nobody heard it.
Three hours later a message was on the way to the shahanshah of Iran from the president of the United States. It expressed the hope that Iran and America would work as partners to ward peace in the Middle East in the future, as they had in the past.
The next day the shah issued a statement. In it he explained that the liberation of his fellow Moslems on the
Persian Gulf had involved tremendous financial sacrifices. The Iranian people had a right to just compensation. He went on to state that it was his intention not only to reconstruct the war-ravaged areas, but to make them models of the advanced civilization that Iran offered the world.
This would all cost money. Therefore, as of March 3, 1976, the price of Persian Gulf oil would double.
That did it.
Within two months Italy and Britain were bankrupt. The dollar had collapsed, along with a few thousand banks. Wall Street lay in ruins. And these were only the first doinirtoes to fall. The Crash of ‘76 was inevitably followed by the Revolution of 1977. the Famine of 1978, the Collapse of Society in 1979 . . . and ultimately, the End of the Industrial Era.
Today, in 1984, most survivors say that it has all been for the good. At least the ones here in California who don’t have to worry about starving or freezing to death. I’m not sure. Sometimes I like to stop and think back on the old world—but, right now, the cows need milking’.
THE END
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NB: Of course this article fiction nevertheless many people believed it and it did harm us....